National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.

Updated Dec. 2, 2020 Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases • This week, CDC received forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases over the next 4 weeks from 25 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. • This week’s national ensemble predicts that 690,000 to 1,700,00 new cases will likely be reported during the week ending December 26, 2020. • Over the last several weeks, more reported cases than expected have fallen outside of the forecasted prediction intervals. This suggests that current forecast prediction intervals may not reflect the full range of future reported case numbers. Forecasts for new cases should be interpreted accordingly.

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