COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Sept. 17, 2020
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COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Sept. 17, 2020

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      Updated Sept. 17, 2020

      Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of September 14, 2020.

      Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

      • This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 40 modeling groups. Of the 40 groups, 35 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.

      • This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,000 to 7,100 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 10, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 207,000 to 218,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

      • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may decrease in 6 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

    • Content Notes:
      National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.
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