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COVID-19 forecasts : hospitalizations
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  • Description:
    Updated Aug. 12, 2020

    Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations

    • This week, two national forecasts predict a likely increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, two forecasts predict a likely decline, and three forecasts are either uncertain about the direction of the trend or predict stable numbers. For September 7, the forecasts estimate 2,000 to 12,000 new COVID-19 hospitalizations per day.

    • State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from multiple factors. Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limitations, and make different assumptions about social distancing.

    • Information about participating modeling groups, with model names, intervention assumptions, and methods, is available at: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.md

  • Content Notes:
    Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations -- National Forecasts -- State Forecasts -- Forecast Assumptions -- Modeling Groups.
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