Colorectal Cancer Screening: Estimated Future Colonoscopy Need and Current Volume and Capacity

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Cancer
• Personal Author:
  Joseph, Djenaba A. ; Meester, Reinier G.S. ; Zauber, Ann G. ; Manninen, Diane L. ; Winges, Linda ; Dong, Fred B. ; Peaker, Brandy ; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein
• Description:
  Background ; In 2014 a national campaign was launched to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening rates in the U.S. to 80% by 2018; it is unknown if there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to reach this goal. We estimate the number of colonoscopies needed to screen 80% of the eligible population with fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) or colonoscopy, and if there is sufficient colonoscopy capacity to meet the need. ; Methods ; The Microsimulation Screening Analysis-colon (MISCAN-colon) model was used to simulate CRC screening test use in the U.S. (2014–2040), assuming the implementation of a national screening program in 2014 with FIT or colonoscopy with 80% participation. The 2012 Survey of Endoscopic Capacity (SECAP) estimated the number of colonoscopies that were performed and the number that could be performed. ; Results ; If a national screening program started in 2014, by 2024, approximately 47 million FITs and 5.1 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a program using FIT as the primary screening test; approximately 11 to 13 million colonoscopies would be needed annually to screen the eligible population with a colonoscopy only screening program. Based on the SECAP survey, an estimated 15 million colonoscopies were performed in 2012 and an additional 10.5 million colonoscopies could be performed. ; Conclusions ; The estimated colonoscopy capacity is sufficient to screen 80% of the eligible U.S. population with FIT, colonoscopy, or a mix of tests. Future analyses should take into account the geographic distribution of colonoscopy capacity.
• Subjects:
  • Colonoscopy
  • Colorectal Neoplasms
  • Early Detection of Cancer
  • Health Care Surveys
  • Humans
  • Mass Screening
  • Population Surveillance
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • United States
• Keywords:
  • colorectal cancer screening
  • colonoscopy
  • capacity
• Source:
  Cancer. 122(16):2479-2486
• Pubmed ID:
  27200481
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC5559728
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  CC999999/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/ ; P30 CA008748/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U01 CA199335/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  122
• Issue:
  16
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/47605/cdc_47605_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.23 MB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:2868b7f70cc7233503e3e7285ba0b0af60ff399d7d5bbb024f3ebdc98dab05df