Cure Models, Survival Probabilities, and Solid Organ Transplantation For Patients With Colorectal Cancer.

Details

• Alternative Title:
  American Journal of Transplantation : Official Journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons, 2025, v. 25, no. 3: Cure Models, Survival Probabilities, and Solid Organ Transplantation For Patients With Colorectal Cancer.
• Journal Article:
  American Journal of Transplantation : Official Journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons
• Personal Author:
  Engels, Eric A. ; Mandal, Soutrik ; Corley, Douglas A. ; Blosser, Christopher D. ; Hart, Allyson ; Lynch, Charles F. ; Qiao, Baozhen ; Pawlish, Karen S. ; Haber, Gregory ; Yu, Kelly J. ; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.
• Description:
  A previous cancer diagnosis can preclude patients from consideration for solid organ transplantation. Statistical models may improve candidate selection. We fitted statistical cure models and estimated 5-year cancer-specific survival (5yCSS) for colorectal cancer patients in the United States using registry data. The median cure probability at cancer diagnosis for patients in the general population was 0.67. Among 956 colorectal cancer patients who underwent solid organ transplantation, the median time since diagnosis was 6.3 years and the median 5yCSS at transplantation was 0.96. Patients with a 5yCSS below 0.90 had increased posttransplant cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio 3.31, 95% CI 1.52-7.21). Compared with recently published guidelines, our models suggested shorter wait times for some groups of colorectal cancer patients (eg, stage IIA cancers) and longer wait times for others (stages IIB, IIIB, IIIC, IV). In conclusion, colorectal cancer patients undergoing solid organ transplantation had excellent prognoses, reflecting selection incorporating existing guidelines and clinical judgment. Nonetheless, 5yCSS probabilities estimated from cure models offer additional prognostic information for patients considered for transplantation and identify situations where current guidelines might be revised. We developed a web-based tool for clinicians to calculate 5yCSS probabilities for use in transplant evaluation for individual colorectal cancer patients (https://dceg.cancer.gov/tools/risk-assessment/calculator-of-colorectal-cancer-survival-probability).
• Content Notes:
  Author manuscript
• Subjects:
  • Humans
  • Colorectal Neoplasms
  • Male
  • Female
  • Middle Aged
  • Organ Transplantation
  • Prognosis
  • Survival Rate
  • Models, Statistical
  • Adult
  More +
• Source:
  American Journal of Transplantation : Official Journal of the American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons, 2025, v. 25, no. 3
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajt.2024.08.018
• ISSN:
  1600-6135 ; 1600-6143
• Pubmed ID:
  39182612
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC11842210
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  27307C0011/ES/NIEHS NIH HHSUnited States/ ; Y01 PC002018/PC/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201000036C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800013C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201000035I/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; 75N92021D00009/HL/NHLBI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800012I/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800002B/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; 75N98021D00006/OD/NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201000037C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; 27305C0011/ES/NIEHS NIH HHSUnited States/ ; 75N96021D00006/ES/NIEHS NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800004C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; N01 PC035143/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U58 DP003875/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/ ; 75N97021D00006/LM/NLM NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800014C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800016C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; N01 PC035139/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; 75N99021D00009/OF/ORFDO NIH HHSUnited States/ ; ZIA CP010150/ImNIH/Intramural NIH HHSUnited States/ ; N01 PC035137/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U58 DP000807/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/ ; NU58DP007160/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/ ; 27398C0011/ES/NIEHS NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800016I/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U58 DP003933/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/ ; U58 DP000848/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800012C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; 75N90021D00009/CL/CLC NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201000035C/PC/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201000034C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U58 DP003921/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/ ; 75N92021D00006/HL/NHLBI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800014I/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; 75N96021D00009/ES/NIEHS NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800002C/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800013I/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; HHSN261201800006I/CA/NCI NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U58 DP000824/DP/NCCDPHP CDC HHSUnited States/
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Pages in Document:
  545-555 (19 pdf pages)
• Volume:
  25
• Issue:
  3
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/262040/cdc_262040_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 890.57 KB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:2ef300282982684f86f57c386be832b2d149cf1ec0f5d4e84bc39bf37a46562edb3e52ee430a82d124acdb2d5bd244899acb032323ea8f94ff60414f3dfd1f5f