Predictors of HIV Seroconversion in Botswana.

Details

• Alternative Title:
  AIDS (London, England), 2025, v. 39, no. 3: Predictors of HIV Seroconversion in Botswana.
• Journal Article:
  AIDS (London, England)
• Personal Author:
  CUI, Yifan ; MOYO, Sikhulile ; PRETORIUS HOLME, Molly ; E HURWITZ, Kathleen ; CHOGA, Wonderful ; BENNETT, Kara ; CHAKALISA, Unoda ; SAN, James Emmanuel ; MANYAKE, Kutlo ; KGATHI, Coulson ; DIPHOKO, Ame ; GASEITSIWE, Simani ; GAOLATHE, Tendani ; ESSEX, M. ; TCHETGEN TCHETGEN, Eric ; MAKHEMA, Joseph M. ; LOCKMAN, Shahin
• Description:
  To identify predictors of HIV acquisition in Botswana.
  
  We applied machine learning approaches to identify HIV risk predictors using existing data from a large, well characterized HIV incidence cohort.
  
  We applied machine learning (randomForestSRC) to analyze data from a large population-based HIV incidence cohort enrolled in a cluster-randomized HIV prevention trial in 30 communities across Botswana. We sought to identify the most important risk factors for HIV acquisition, starting with 110 potential predictors.
  
  During a median 29-month follow-up of 8551 HIV-negative adults, 147 (1.7%) acquired HIV. Our machine learning analysis found that for females, the most important variables for predicting HIV acquisition were the use of injectable hormonal contraception, frequency of sex in the prior 3 months with the most recent partner and residing in a community with HIV prevalence of 29% or higher. For the small proportion (0.3%) of females who had all three risk factors, their estimated probability of acquiring HIV during 29 months of follow-up was 34% (approximate annual incidence of 14%). For males, nonlong-term relationships with the most recent partner and community HIV prevalence of 34% or higher were the most important HIV risk predictors. The 6% of males who had both risk factors had a 5.1% probability of acquiring HIV during the follow-up period (approximate annual incidence of 2.1%).
  
  Machine learning approaches allowed us to analyze a large number of variables to efficiently identify key factors strongly predictive of HIV risk. These factors could help target HIV prevention interventions in Botswana.
  
  NCT01965470.
• Content Notes:
  Author manuscript
• Subjects:
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Young Adult
  • HIV Infections
  • HIV Seropositivity
  • Incidence
  More +
• Keywords:
  • HIV risk factors
  • HIV incidence
  • machine learning
  • Ya Tsie Study
  • BCPP
  • Botswana
  • Africa
• Source:
  AIDS (London, England), 2025, v. 39, no. 3
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000004055
• ISSN:
  0269-9370 ; 1473-5571
• Pubmed ID:
  39497537
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC11779586
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  K43 TW012350/TW/FIC NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U01 GH000447/GH/CGH CDC HHSUnited States/ ; K24 AI131928/AI/NIAID NIH HHSUnited States/ ; D43 TW009610/TW/FIC NIH HHSUnited States/ ; K24 AI131924/AI/NIAID NIH HHSUnited States/ ; U2G GH001911/GH/CGH CDC HHSUnited States/
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Botswana
• Pages in Document:
  290-297 (14 pdf pages)
• Volume:
  39
• Issue:
  3
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/261942/cdc_261942_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 855.67 KB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:9162bff31d1881d129969bce754ad7ddd9427bb8a8bbf22c1b9e78b7ed6deb294dd56719ff9ce81017f94010deefb8d96adc6d772117d0300068ec82c213b931