Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths: Feb. 10, 2021

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
• Description:
  Updated Feb. 10, 2021
  
  Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of February 8, 2021.
  
  Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
  
  • This week, ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks included forecasts from 40 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for new or total deaths for at least one jurisdiction.
  
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 10,300 to 20,400 new deaths likely reported in the week ending March 6, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 515,000 to 540,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
  
  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely decrease in 30 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
  
  National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Coronavirus Infections COVID-19 Forecasting Mortality Pandemics Public Health Surveillance
• Series:
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Collection(s):
  Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:ae0559f1f197b98b5fbb90f481c190cddc66115a59fe6a7f16de2b30d0d705f584e3c379834f26fdb33c5d6fd0c43847a994632b05816f28b3898ae06780720e
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/102815/cdc_102815_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 667.86 KB ]