Updated Jan. 13, 2021 Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of January 11, 2021. Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths • This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 39 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 39 groups, 35 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only. • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that 16,200 to 29,600 new deaths will likely be reported in the week ending February 6, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 440,000 to 477,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date. • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 3 jurisdictions and decrease in 1 jurisdiction, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.

Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library collection