Updated Jan. 13, 2021 Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations • This week, CDC received forecasts of daily, new reported COVID-19 hospital admissions over the next 4 weeks from 12 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. • This week’s national ensemble predicts a likely increase in number of daily new confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions, with 14,000 to 25,000 new confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions reported February 8, 2021. • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions will likely increase in 8 jurisdictions and decrease in 4 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported hospital admissions are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories. • In previous weeks, all submitted forecasts were displayed, even if they were not included in the ensemble forecasts. Starting this week, only forecasts meeting a set of inclusion criteria are shown for jurisdictions with ensemble forecasts. Further details are available here: https://covid19forecasthub.org/doc/ensemble/

Interpretation of Forecasts of New Hospitalizations -- National Forecasts -- State Forecasts -- Forecast Assumptions -- Modeling Groups.

Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library collection