COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Nov. 25, 2020
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  • English

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    • Description:
      Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of November 23, 2020.

      Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

      • This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 36 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecast. Of the 36 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and one forecasted new deaths only.

      • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 10,600 to 21,400 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending December 19, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 294,000 to 321,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

      • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 39 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

    • Content Notes:
      National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.
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