COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Nov. 5, 2020
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Up-to-Date Info: To find the latest CDC information on this topic go to: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html

COVID-19 forecasts : deaths : updated Nov. 5, 2020

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    • Description:
      Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of November 16, 2020.

      Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

      • This week CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 36 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecast. Of the 36 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and one forecasted new death only.

      • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next four weeks, with 7,300 to 16,000 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending December 12, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 276,000 to 298,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.

      • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely increase in 36 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

    • Content Notes:
      National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.
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