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Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of Influenza Epidemics in Local Settings, Sweden, 2008–2019
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Nov 2020
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Source: Emerg Infect Dis. 26(11):2669-2677
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Alternative Title:Emerg Infect Dis
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Description:The timing of influenza case incidence during epidemics can differ between regions within nations and states. We conducted a prospective 10-year evaluation (January 2008-February 2019) of a local influenza nowcasting (short-term forecasting) method in 3 urban counties in Sweden with independent public health administrations by using routine health information system data. Detection-of-epidemic-start (detection), peak timing, and peak intensity were nowcasted. Detection displayed satisfactory performance in 2 of the 3 counties for all nonpandemic influenza seasons and in 6 of 9 seasons for the third county. Peak-timing prediction showed satisfactory performance from the influenza season 2011-12 onward. Peak-intensity prediction also was satisfactory for influenza seasons in 2 of the counties but poor in 1 county. Local influenza nowcasting was satisfactory for seasonal influenza in 2 of 3 counties. The less satisfactory performance in 1 of the study counties might be attributable to population mixing with a neighboring metropolitan area.
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Pubmed ID:33079036
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC7588521
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Volume:26
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Issue:11
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[PDF-1.50 MB]
