Details:

Alternative Title:
Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:
Spreco, Armin ; Eriksson, Olle ; Dahlström, Örjan ; Cowling, Benjamin John ; Timpka, Toomas
Spreco, Armin ; Eriksson, Olle ; Dahlström, Örjan ; Cowling, Benjamin John ; Timpka, Toomas Less -
Description:
The growing availability of big data in healthcare and public health opens possibilities for infectious disease control in local settings. We prospectively evaluated a method for integrated local detection and prediction (nowcasting) of influenza epidemics over 5 years, using the total population in Östergötland County, Sweden. We used routine health information system data on influenza-diagnosis cases and syndromic telenursing data for July 2009-June 2014 to evaluate epidemic detection, peak-timing prediction, and peak-intensity prediction. Detection performance was satisfactory throughout the period, except for the 2011-12 influenza A(H3N2) season, which followed a season with influenza B and pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus activity. Peak-timing prediction performance was satisfactory for the 4 influenza seasons but not the pandemic. Peak-intensity levels were correctly categorized for the pandemic and 2 of 4 influenza seasons. We recommend using versions of this method modified with regard to local use context for further evaluations using standard methods.
Subject:
[+]
Epidemiology
Evaluation Of Nowcasting For Detecting And Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014
Evaluation Research
Human Influenza
Infectious Disease
Influenza
Nowcasting
Research
Signal Detection Analysis
Surveillance
Viruses

Source:
Emerg Infect Dis. 24(10):1868-1873.
Pubmed ID:
30226160
Pubmed Central ID:
PMC6154154
Document Type:
Journal Article
Place as Subject:
Sweden
Collection(s):
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:d58368e0ce0c2fd805224420282965e600837f335957524c898f6920de67a35d
File Type:

Supporting Files

• 	17-1940-F.gif	gif
  	17-1940-F.jpg	jpeg
  	17-1940-Techapp-s1.pdf	pdf
  	17-1940-Techapp-s2.pdf	pdf
  	17-1940.nxml	xml

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