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Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014
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Oct 2018
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Source: Emerg Infect Dis. 24(10):1868-1873.
[PDF-1008.25 KB]
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Alternative Title:Emerg Infect Dis
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Description:The growing availability of big data in healthcare and public health opens possibilities for infectious disease control in local settings. We prospectively evaluated a method for integrated local detection and prediction (nowcasting) of influenza epidemics over 5 years, using the total population in Östergötland County, Sweden. We used routine health information system data on influenza-diagnosis cases and syndromic telenursing data for July 2009-June 2014 to evaluate epidemic detection, peak-timing prediction, and peak-intensity prediction. Detection performance was satisfactory throughout the period, except for the 2011-12 influenza A(H3N2) season, which followed a season with influenza B and pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus activity. Peak-timing prediction performance was satisfactory for the 4 influenza seasons but not the pandemic. Peak-intensity levels were correctly categorized for the pandemic and 2 of 4 influenza seasons. We recommend using versions of this method modified with regard to local use context for further evaluations using standard methods.
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Pubmed ID:30226160
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC6154154
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Volume:24
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Issue:10
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