COVID-19 forecasts : cases
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COVID-19 forecasts : cases

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    • Description:
      Updated Nov. 5, 2020

      Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases

      • This week CDC received forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases over the next 4 weeks from 21 modeling groups.

      • This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 cases reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 450,000 to 960,000 new cases will likely be reported during the week ending November 28, 2020.

      • Over the last several weeks, more reported cases than expected have fallen outside of the forecasted prediction intervals. This suggests that current forecast prediction intervals may not reflect the full range of future reported case numbers. Forecasts for new cases should be interpreted accordingly.

      • In previous weeks, all submitted forecasts were displayed, even if they didn’t include sufficient information on forecast uncertainty to be included in the ensemble. Forecasts are included in the ensemble and displayed on this page when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described at the here:

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