Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths: Updated Sept. 17, 2020

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
• Description:
  Updated Sept. 24, 2020
  
  Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of September 21, 2020.
  
  Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
  
  • This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 41 modeling groups. Of the 41 groups, 36 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, three groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.
  
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,400 to 7,400 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 17, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 214,000 to 226,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
  
  • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may decrease in 5 jurisdictions and increase in one jurisdiction, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
  
  National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Coronavirus Infections COVID-19 Forecasting Pandemics Public Health Surveillance
• Series:
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Collection(s):
  Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:9bb1f63ccf3f5880241be16e7371b9e66921dd73bd1805f9e5b105f9259184dbd8ff00dabb3695756dade4cdab64cc5e2cdcae5becdf3388528a0e0a9858291d
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/94366/cdc_94366_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 347.38 KB ]