COVID-19 pandemic planning scenarios
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COVID-19 pandemic planning scenarios

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  • Corporate Authors:
    National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
  • Description:
    Updated Sept. 10, 2020

    Updated September 10, 2020:

    • The Infection Fatality Ratio parameter has been updated to include age-specific estimates

    • The parameter for Number of Days from Symptom Onset to Seeking Outpatient Care—which was based on influenza care seeking data—has been replaced with the Median Number of Days from Symptom Onset to SARS-CoV-2 Test among SARS-CoV-2 Positive Patients

    • A new parameter for the likelihood of an infection being reported has been added: The Ratio of Estimated Infections to Reported Case Counts

    CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by public health officials who use mathematical modeling, and by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenario tables can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The planning scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19Surge Tool.

    Each scenario is based on a set of numerical values for biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 illness, which is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These values—called parameter values—can be used in models to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19 in U.S. states and localities. This document was first posted on May 20, 2020, with the understanding that the parameter values in each scenario would be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. The September 10 update is based on data received by CDC through August 8, 2020.

  • Content Notes:
    The Five Scenarios -- The Parameter Values: Definitions -- Box 1. Description of the Five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.
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