COVID-19 pandemic planning scenarios
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  • Corporate Authors:
    National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
  • Description:
    Updated Mar. 19, 2021

    CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Responseexternal icon (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to advance public health preparedness and planning and help inform decisions by public health officials who use mathematical modeling and by mathematical modelers throughout the federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the Planning Scenario tables can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The Planning Scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19 Surge Tool.

    Each Planning Scenario is based on a set of numerical values for the biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 illness, which is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These values—called parameter values—can be used in models to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19 in U.S. states and localities. This document was first posted on May 20, 2020, with the understanding that the parameter values in each Scenario would be updated and augmented over time as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. This will be the final update of the COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios, as there is now a substantial body of published literature that modelers can draw on to inform parameter estimates and assumptions for their models.

  • Content Notes:
    The Five Scenarios -- The Parameter Values: Definitions -- Box 1 Description of the Five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios.
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