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COVID-19 pandemic planning scenarios
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May 20, 2020
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[PDF-104.57 KB]
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Description:CDC and the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Responseexternal icon (ASPR) have developed five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by modelers and public health officials who utilize mathematical modeling. The planning scenarios are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the Federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenarios can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing). The planning scenarios may also be useful to hospital administrators in assessing resource needs and can be used in conjunction with the COVID-19Surge Tool.
Each scenario is based on a set of numerical values for biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19. These values—called parameter values—can be used to estimate the possible effects of COVID-19 in U.S. states and localities. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19.
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Content Notes:The Five Scenarios -- The Parameter Values: Definitions -- Box 1 Description of the Five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios -- Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios --
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