i
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
-
June 21 2020
Source: Emerg Infect Dis. 26(7):1470-1477
Details:
-
Alternative Title:Emerg Infect Dis
-
Personal Author:
-
Description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R|) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R| value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
-
Subjects:
-
Pubmed ID:32255761
-
Pubmed Central ID:PMC7323562
-
Document Type:
-
Place as Subject:
-
Location:
-
Collection(s):
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
Supporting Files
-
gif jpeg gif jpeg xlsx pdf xml gif jpeg gif jpeg gif jpeg gif jpeg
More +