High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Emerg Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Sanche, Steven ; Lin, Yen Ting ; Xu, Chonggang ; Romero-Severson, Ethan ; Hengartner, Nick ; Ke, Ruian
• Description:
  Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R|) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R| value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
• Subjects:
  Basic Reproduction Number Betacoronavirus Coronavirus Infections Covid-19 Disease Outbreaks Humans Models, Theoretical Pandemics Pneumonia, Viral Travel
• Source:
  Emerg Infect Dis. 26(7):1470-1477
• Pubmed ID:
  32255761
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC7323562
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  R01 AI135946/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States
• Place as Subject:
  China
• Location:
  Asia
• Volume:
  26
• Issue:
  7
• Collection(s):
  Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:cc2f2a3740bc0154f7a3b347439f2bf1e6cd5f27b5124d4998b2f980326e4993
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/90194/cdc_90194_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.08 MB ]