Development and Validation of a Clinical Score for Predicting Risk of Adenoma at Screening Colonoscopy

Details

• Personal Author:
  Allen JA ; Church, Timothy R. ; Feld AD ; Jordan PA ; Kauff ND ; Kim A ; Mills GM ; O'Brien MJ ; Shanley R ; Shaukat A ; Winawer SJ ; Zauber AG
• Description:
  Background: Currently, no clinical tools use demographic and risk factor information to predict the risk of finding an adenoma in individuals undergoing colon cancer screening. Such a tool would be valuable for identifying those who would most benefit from screening colonoscopy. Methods: We used baseline data from men and women who underwent screening colonoscopy from the randomized, multicenter National Colonoscopy Study (NCS) to develop and validate an adenoma risk model. The study, conducted at three sites in the United States (Minneapolis, MN; Seattle, WA; and Shreveport, LA) asked all participants to complete baseline questionnaires on clinical risk factors and family history. Model parameters estimated from logistic regression yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) used to assess prediction. Results: Five hundred forty-one subjects were included in the development model, and 1,334 in the validation of the risk score. Variables in the prediction of adenoma risk for colonoscopy screening were age (likelihood ratio test for overall contribution to model, P < 0.001), male sex (P < 0.001), body mass index (P < 0.001), family history of at least one first-degree relative with colorectal cancer (P = 0.036), and smoking history (P < 0.001). The adjusted AUROCC of 0.67 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.61-0.74] for the derivation cohort was not statistically significantly different from that in the validation cohort. The adjusted AUROCC for the entire cohort was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.67). Conclusion: We developed and validated a simple well-calibrated risk score. Impact: This tool may be useful for estimating risk of adenomas in screening eligible men and women. [Description provided by NIOSH]
• Subjects:
  Cohort Studies Neoplasms Occupational Health Safety
• Keywords:
  Cancer Rates Clinical Techniques Cohort Studies Colorectal Cancer Medical Screening Risk Assessment Screening Methods
• ISSN:
  1055-9965
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  Grant
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Connecticut ; Louisiana ; Massachusetts ; Minnesota ; New York ; OSHA Region 1 ; OSHA Region 10 ; OSHA Region 2 ; OSHA Region 5 ; OSHA Region 6 ; Washington
• CIO:
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)
• Topic:
  Workplace Safety & Health
• Location:
  North America
• Volume:
  24
• Issue:
  6
• NIOSHTIC Number:
  nn:20064577
• Citation:
  Cancer Epidemiol Biomark Prev 2015 Jun; 24(6):913-920
• Contact Point Address:
  Aasma Shaukat, University of Minnesota, 1 Veterans Drive, Minneapolis, MN 55417
• Email:
  haukat@umn.edu
• Federal Fiscal Year:
  2015
• Performing Organization:
  University of Minnesota Twin Cities
• Peer Reviewed:
  True
• Start Date:
  20050701
• Source Full Name:
  Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
• End Date:
  20250630
• Collection(s):
  National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:d025cb746d9791d1913bfc378d8a706621fc36891c6faa6ef1f883aa4b19ffcc98e9359eead792905aa0fa14b7c25caa77e9c52b40281d3d42af428440a3a05e
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/223015/cdc_223015_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 550.03 KB ]