Details:

Alternative Title:
Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:
Simmons, Kirsten ; Gambhir, Manoj ; Leon, Juan ; Lopman, Ben
Simmons, Kirsten ; Gambhir, Manoj ; Leon, Juan ; Lopman, Ben Less -
Description:
The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2-5.1) to 8.7 (95% CI 6.8-11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (<5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.
Subjects:
[+]
Adolescent Adult Age Factors Algorithms Caliciviridae Infections Child Child, Preschool Computer Simulation Disease Outbreaks Gastroenteritis Genetic Predisposition To Disease Humans Immunity, Active Incidence Infant Models, Immunological Poisson Distribution Research Vaccination Viral Vaccines Young Adult
Source:
Emerg Infect Dis. 19(8):1260-1267.
Document Type:
Journal Article
Place as Subject:
United States
Collection(s):
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:4858691270f4fe2ae8a15a2d32225d4fc4b1bd592f87510b69f26efd70298aef
Download URL:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/19166/cdc_19166_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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