Details:

Alternative Title:
Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:
Simmons, Kirsten; Gambhir, Manoj; Leon, Juan; Lopman, Ben;
Simmons, Kirsten; Gambhir, Manoj; Leon, Juan; Lopman, Ben; Less -
Description:
The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2-5.1) to 8.7 (95% CI 6.8-11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (<5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.
Subject:
[+]
Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Algorithms
Caliciviridae Infections
Child
Child, Preschool
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks
Gastroenteritis
Genetic Predisposition To Disease
Humans
Immunity, Active
Incidence
Infant
Models, Immunological
Poisson Distribution
Research
Vaccination
Viral Vaccines
Young Adult

Source:
Emerg Infect Dis. 19(8):1260-1267.;
Document Type:
Journal Article;
Place as Subject:
United States;
Collection(s):
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:4858691270f4fe2ae8a15a2d32225d4fc4b1bd592f87510b69f26efd70298aef
File Type:

Supporting Files

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