Modeling Options to Manage Type 1 Wild Poliovirus Imported into Israel in 2013

Details

• Alternative Title:
  J Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Kalkowska, Dominika A. ; Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J. ; Grotto, Itamar ; Shulman, Lester M. ; Anis, Emilia ; Wassilak, Steven G.F. ; Pallansch, Mark A. ; Thompson, Kimberly M.
• Description:
  Background.
  
  After 25 years without poliomyelitis cases caused by wild poliovirus (WPV) circulation in Israel, sewage sampling detected WPV type 1 (WPV1) in April 2013, despite high vaccination coverage with only inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) since 2005.
  
  Methods.
  
  We used a differential equation-based model to simulate the dynamics of poliovirus transmission and population immunity in Israel due to past exposure to WPV and use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in addition to IPV. We explored the influences of various immunization options to stop imported WPV1 circulation in Israel.
  
  Results.
  
  We successfully modeled the potential for WPVs to circulate without detected cases in Israel. Maintaining a sequential IPV/OPV schedule instead of switching to IPV-only in 2005 would have kept population immunity high enough in Israel to prevent WPV1 circulation. The Israeli response to WPV1 detection prevented paralytic cases; a more rapid response might have interrupted transmission more quickly.
  
  Conclusions.
  
  IPV-based protection alone might not provide sufficient population immunity to prevent poliovirus transmission after an importation. As countries transition to IPV in immunization schedules, they may need to actively manage population immunity and consider continued OPV use to avoid the potential circulation of imported live polioviruses until globally-coordinated cessation of OPV use.
  
  
• Keywords:
  Adolescent Adult Child Child, Preschool Disease Outbreaks Eradication Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn IPV Israel Models, Biological OPV Polio Poliomyelitis Poliovirus Poliovirus Vaccines Population Dynamics Population Immunity Vaccination Young Adult

  More +
• Source:
  J Infect Dis. 211(11):1800-1812
• Pubmed ID:
  25505296
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC7887763
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  U2R GH001913/GH/CGH CDC HHSUnited States/ ; U66 IP000519/IP/NCIRD CDC HHSUnited States/ ; U66IP000519/IP/NCIRD CDC HHSUnited States/
• Volume:
  211
• Issue:
  11
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:1ad636cee99ab5589802915aa896c6286b8c97f9fca777ee3bf3c9b13f7551ee
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/103143/cdc_103143_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.27 MB ]