Details:

Alternative Title:
Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:
Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre ; Ferguson, Neil M. ; Anderson, Roy M.
Hollingsworth, T. Déirdre ; Ferguson, Neil M. ; Anderson, Roy M. Less -
Description:
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest. Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly. If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.
Subject:
[+]
Aircraft
Communicable Diseases
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemics
Humans
Influenza
International Air Travel
Internationality
Mathematical Model
Models, Biological
Research
SARS
Stochastic Processes
Time Factors
Travel

Source:
Emerg Infect Dis. 13(9):1288-1294.
Document Type:
Journal Article
Collection(s):
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:e39a179985cea14c60277759c72c766cbb117144c734eabcae6b46f47fa38c01
File Type:

Supporting Files

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  	07-0081_appF2-s3.gif	gif
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  	07-0081_Techapp-s1.pdf	pdf

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