Details:

Alternative Title:
Emerg Infect Dis
Publisher's site:
http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1005.030419
Personal Author:
Kretzschmar, Mirjam ; van den Hof, Susan ; Wallinga, Jacco ; van Wijngaarden, Jan
Kretzschmar, Mirjam ; van den Hof, Susan ; Wallinga, Jacco ; van Wijngaarden, Jan Less -
Description:
We present a stochastic model for the spread of smallpox after a small number of index cases are introduced into a susceptible population. The model describes a branching process for the spread of the infection and the effects of intervention measures. We discuss scenarios in which ring vaccination of direct contacts of infected persons is sufficient to contain an epidemic. Ring vaccination can be successful if infectious cases are rapidly diagnosed. However, because of the inherent stochastic nature of epidemic outbreaks, both the size and duration of contained outbreaks are highly variable. Intervention requirements depend on the basic reproduction number (R0), for which different estimates exist. When faced with the decision of whether to rely on ring vaccination, the public health community should be aware that an epidemic might take time to subside even for an eventually successful intervention strategy.
Subject:
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Contact Tracing
Disease Outbreaks
Humans
Mathematical Model
Models, Biological
Research
Ring Vaccination
Smallpox
Smallpox Vaccine
Stochastic Processes
Vaccination
Variola Virus
Smallpox

Source:
Emerg Infect Dis. 10(5):832-841.
Document Type:
Journal Article
Collection(s):
Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:7db18e23bd5ecf111af9a018cd0c3583f8499772c9a91bcbfae980a50993e449
File Type:

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