Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Contact Rates during a Simulated Influenza Pandemic

Haber, Michael J.; Shay, Davis K.; Davis, Xiaohong M.; Patel, Rajan; Jin, Xiaoping; Weintraub, Eric; Orenstein, Evan; Thompson, William W.

doi:10.3201/eid1304.060828

i

Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Contact Rates during a Simulated Influenza Pandemic

Supporting Files

Apr 2007
By Haber, Michael J. ; Shay, Davis K. ; Davis, Xiaohong M. ; ...

File Language:

English

Details

Alternative Title:

Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:

Haber, Michael J. ; Shay, Davis K. ; Davis, Xiaohong M. ; Patel, Rajan ; Jin, Xiaoping ; Weintraub, Eric ; Orenstein, Evan ; Thompson, William W.
Description:

Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts among long-term care facility (LTCF) residents on pandemic-related illness and deaths. Our findings suggest that school closings would not have a substantial effect on pandemic-related outcomes in the absence of measures to reduce out-of-school contacts. However, if persons with influenzalike symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to stay home, then rates of illness and death might be reduced by approximately 50%. By preventing ill LTCF residents from making contact with other residents, illness and deaths in this vulnerable population might be reduced by approximately 60%. Restricting the activities of infected persons early in a pandemic could decrease the pandemic's health effects.
Subjects:

Adolescent Adult Aged Child Child, Preschool Computer Simulation Contact Tracing Disease Outbreaks Family Characteristics Female Health Planning Humans Infant Infant, Newborn Influenza, Human Influenza A Virus, H2N2 Subtype Long-Term Care Male Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Schools Stochastic Processes
Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 13(4):581-589.
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

02IPA09666/PHS HHS/United States
Place as Subject:

United States
Location:

North America
Volume:

13
Issue:

4
Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:1d3c1e7e283cf4163ab9f42e2855d9026dc1d9dd765f3c563489cf8e79586594
Download URL:

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/16452/cdc_16452_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 254.98 KB ]

File Language:

English

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