Economics of Neuraminidase Inhibitor Stockpiling for Pandemic Influenza, Singapore

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Emerg Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Lee, Vernon J. ; Phua, Kai Hong ; Chen, Mark I. ; Chow, Angela ; Ma, Stefan ; Goh, Kee Tai ; Leo, Yee Sin
• Description:
  We compared strategies for stock piling neuraminidase inhibitors to treat and prevent influenza in Singapore. Cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses, with Monte Carlo simulations, were used to determine economic outcomes. A pandemic in a population of 4.2 million would result in an estimated 525-1,775 deaths, 10,700-38,600 hospitalization days, and economic costs of 0.7 dollars to 2.2 billion Singapore dollars. The treatment-only strategy had optimal economic benefits: stock piles of antiviral agents for 40% of the population would save an estimated 418 lives and 414 million dollars, at a cost of 52.6 million dollars per shelf-life cycle of the stock pile. Prophylaxis was economically beneficial in high-risk subpopulations, which account for 78% of deaths, and in pandemics in which the death rate was >0.6%. Prophylaxis for pandemics with a 5% case-fatality rate would save 50,000 lives and 81 billion dollars. These models can help policymakers weigh the options for pandemic planning.
• Subjects:
  Antiviral Agents Cost-Benefit Analysis Decision Making Disease Outbreaks Humans Influenza, Human Neuraminidase Survival Rate
• Source:
  Emerg Infect Dis. 12(1):95-102.
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  Singapore
• Volume:
  12
• Issue:
  1
• Collection(s):
  Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:7b361abd6b46a757ba95a368c0c1af92c6a9426781dcfbd0afbc823a5f1efe18
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/15928/cdc_15928_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 263.47 KB ]