Multivariate Markovian modeling of tuberculosis: forecast for the United States.

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Emerg Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Debanne, S. M. ; Bielefeld, R. A. ; Cauthen, G. M. ; Daniel, T. M. ; Rowland, D. Y.
• Description:
  We have developed a computer-implemented, multivariate Markov chain model to project tuberculosis (TB) incidence in the United States from 1980 to 2010 in disaggregated demographic groups. Uncertainty in model parameters and in the projections is represented by fuzzy numbers. Projections are made under the assumption that current TB control measures will remain unchanged for the projection period. The projections of the model demonstrate an intermediate increase in national TB incidence (similar to that which actually occurred) followed by continuing decline. The rate of decline depends strongly on geographic, racial, and ethnic characteristics. The model predicts that the rate of decline in the number of cases among Hispanics will be slower than among white non-Hispanics and black non-Hispanics a prediction supported by the most recent data.
• Subjects:
  Adolescent Adult Aged Child Child, Preschool Computer Simulation Emigration And Immigration Ethnicity Female Humans Male Markov Chains Middle Aged Models, Biological Multivariate Analysis Tuberculosis, Pulmonary

  More +
• Source:
  Emerg Infect Dis. 6(2):148-157.
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Volume:
  6
• Issue:
  2
• Collection(s):
  Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:a41acc2bb62e63fbec6622294fa0bcde04818932f977f610cb7be9d588340716
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/14959/cdc_14959_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 285.66 KB ]