Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Emerg Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Pons-Salort, Margarita ; John, Jacob ; Watson, Oliver J. ; Brazeau, Nicholas F. ; Verity, Robert ; Kang, Gagandeep ; Grassly, Nicholas C.
• Description:
  India reported >10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission model fit to data from 3 serosurveys in Delhi and time-series documentation of reported deaths. We estimated 48.7% (95% credible interval 22.1%-76.8%) cumulative infection in the population through the end of September 2020. Using an age-adjusted overall infection fatality ratio based on age-specific estimates from mostly high-income countries, we estimated that just 15.0% (95% credible interval 9.3%-34.0%) of COVID-19 deaths had been reported, indicating either substantial underreporting or lower age-specific infection-fatality ratios in India than in high-income countries. Despite the estimated high attack rate, additional epidemic waves occurred in late 2020 and April-May 2021. Future dynamics will depend on the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity and their effectiveness against new variants.
• Subjects:
  Covid-19 Epidemics Humans Incidence Sars-Cov-2
• Source:
  Emerg Infect Dis. 2022; 28(4):759-766
• Pubmed ID:
  35213800
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC8962916
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  WT_/Wellcome TrustUnited Kingdom/ ; MRC_/Medical Research CouncilUnited Kingdom/
• Place as Subject:
  India
• Volume:
  28
• Issue:
  4
• Collection(s):
  Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:3cfa153faa44c0c97c478c9545e5bdd68804a2eadce191e7ac1592fe62a0dd95
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/116317/cdc_116317_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.15 MB ]