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Variant-specific burden of SARS-CoV-2 in Michigan: March 2020 through November 2021
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11 2022
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Source: J Med Virol. 94(11):5251-5259
[PDF-1.51 MB]
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Alternative Title:J Med Virol
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Personal Author:
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Description:Objectives:
Accurate estimates of total burden of SARS-CoV-2 are needed to inform policy, planning and response. We sought to quantify SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by age in Michigan.
Methods:
COVID-19 cases reported to the Michigan Disease Surveillance System were multiplied by age and time-specific adjustment factors to correct for under-detection. Adjustment factors were estimated in a model fit to incidence data and seroprevalence estimates. Age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization, death, and vaccination, and variant proportions were estimated from publicly available data.
Results:
We estimated substantial under-detection of infection that varied by age and time. Accounting for under-detection, we estimate cumulative incidence of infection in Michigan reached 75% by mid-November 2021, and over 87% of Michigan residents were estimated to have had ≥1 vaccination dose and/or previous infection. Comparing pandemic waves, the relative burden among children increased over time. In general, the proportion of cases who were hospitalized or who died decreased over time.
Conclusions:
Our results highlight the ongoing risk of periods of high SARS-CoV-2 incidence despite widespread prior infection and vaccination. This underscores the need for long-term planning for surveillance, vaccination, and other mitigation measures amidst continued response to the acute pandemic.
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Pubmed ID:35798681
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC9350192
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Volume:94
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Issue:11
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