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COVID-19 forecasts : deaths
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Jan. 29, 2021
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Description:Updated Jan. 29, 2021
Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of January 25, 2021.
Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
• This week, CDC received forecasts of COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 38 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. Of the 38 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, two groups forecasted total deaths only, and three forecasted new deaths only.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 13,500 to 25,000 new deaths likely reported in the week ending February 20, 2021. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 479,000 to 514,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
• The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week will likely decrease in 10 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
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Content Notes:National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Ensemble Forecast -- Forecast Assumptions.
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