Updated Jan. 27, 2021 Interpretation of Forecasts of New Cases • This week, CDC received forecasts of new reported COVID-19 cases over the next 4 weeks from 25 modeling groups that were included in the ensemble forecasts. • This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 cases will likely decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 720,000 to 1,500,000 new cases likely reported in the week ending February 20, 2021. • The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of new reported cases per week will likely decrease in 18 jurisdictions, which is indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported cases are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.

Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library collection