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Generalizability of a biomathematical model of fatigue’s sleep predictions
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April 02 2020
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Source: Chronobiol Int. 37(4):564-572
[PDF-294.78 KB]
Details:
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Alternative Title:Chronobiol Int
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Personal Author:
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Description:Introduction:
Biomathematical models of fatigue (BMMF) predict fatigue during a work-rest schedule on the basis of sleep-wake histories. In the absence of actual sleep-wake histories, sleep-wake histories are predicted directly from work-rest schedules. The predicted sleep-wake histories are then used to predict fatigue. It remains to be determined whether workers organize their sleep similarly across operations and thus whether sleep predictions generalize.
Methods:
Officers (n = 173) enrolled in the Buffalo Cardio-Metabolic Occupational Police Stress study were studied. Officers’ sleep-wake behaviors were measured using wrist-actigraphy and predicted using a BMMF (FAID Quantum) parameterized in aviation and rail. Sleepiness (i.e. Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) ratings) was predicted using actual and predicted sleep-wake data. Data were analyzed using sensitivity analyses.
Results:
During officers’ 16.0 ± 1.9 days of study participation, they worked 8.6 ± 3.1 shifts and primarily worked day shifts and afternoon shifts. Across shifts, 7.0 h ± 1.9 h of actual sleep were obtained in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.7 ± 1.3. Across shifts, 7.2 h ± 1.1 h of sleep were predicted in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.5 ± 1.2. The minute-by-minute predicted and actual sleep-wake data demonstrated high sensitivity (80.4%). However, sleep was observed at all hours-of-the-day, but sleep was rarely predicted during the daytime hours.
Discussion:
The sleep-wake behaviors predicted by a BMMF parameterized in aviation and rail demonstrated high sensitivity with police officers’ actual sleep-wake behaviors. Additional night shift data are needed to conclude whether BMMF sleep predictions generalize across operations.
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Source:
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Pubmed ID:32241186
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Pubmed Central ID:PMC7735394
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Funding:
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Volume:37
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Issue:4
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