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Generalizability of a Biomathematical Model of Fatigue’s Sleep Predictions



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  • Personal Author:
  • Description:
    Introduction: Biomathematical models of fatigue (BMMF) predict fatigue during a work-rest schedule on the basis of sleep-wake histories. In the absence of actual sleep-wake histories, sleep-wake histories are predicted directly from work-rest schedules. The predicted sleep-wake histories are then used to predict fatigue. It remains to be determined whether workers organize their sleep similarly across operations and thus whether sleep predictions generalize. Methods: Officers (n = 173) enrolled in the Buffalo Cardio-Metabolic Occupational Police Stress study were studied. Officers' sleep-wake behaviors were measured using wrist-actigraphy and predicted using a BMMF (FAID Quantum) parameterized in aviation and rail. Sleepiness (i.e. Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) ratings) was predicted using actual and predicted sleep-wake data. Data were analyzed using sensitivity analyses. Results: During officers' 16.0 +/- 1.9 days of study participation, they worked 8.6 +/- 3.1 shifts and primarily worked day shifts and afternoon shifts. Across shifts, 7.0 h +/- 1.9 h of actual sleep were obtained in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.7 +/- 1.3. Across shifts, 7.2 h +/- 1.1 h of sleep were predicted in the prior 24 h and associated peak KSS ratings were 5.5 +/- 1.2. The minute-by-minute predicted and actual sleep-wake data demonstrated high sensitivity (80.4%). However, sleep was observed at all hours-of-the-day, but sleep was rarely predicted during the daytime hours. Discussion: The sleep-wake behaviors predicted by a BMMF parameterized in aviation and rail demonstrated high sensitivity with police officers' actual sleep-wake behaviors. Additional night shift data are needed to conclude whether BMMF sleep predictions generalize across operations. [Description provided by NIOSH]
  • Subjects:
  • Keywords:
  • ISSN:
    0742-0528
  • Document Type:
  • Funding:
  • Genre:
  • Place as Subject:
  • CIO:
  • Division:
  • Topic:
  • Location:
  • Volume:
    37
  • Issue:
    4
  • NIOSHTIC Number:
    nn:20059274
  • Citation:
    Chronobiol Int 2020 Apr; 37(4):564-572
  • Contact Point Address:
    Samantha M. Riedy, Unit for Experimental Psychiatry, Division of Sleep and Chronobiology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, 1020 Blockley Hall, 423 Guardian Drive, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6021, USA
  • Email:
    samantha.riedy@pennmedicine.upenn.edu
  • Federal Fiscal Year:
    2020
  • NORA Priority Area:
  • Performing Organization:
    State University of New York at Buffalo
  • Peer Reviewed:
    True
  • Start Date:
    20100901
  • Source Full Name:
    Chronobiology International
  • End Date:
    20150831
  • Collection(s):
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha-512:894eb56e43c3a10bd550a650bb06cf4f269bff8373fd971ef31cea23abfbf6c37aaca77e329521a322160c718b17aed92634ec40768a4c398f5b71c813e4d0d4
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.28 MB ]
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