Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Emerg Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Matrajt, Laura ; Leung, Tiffany
• Description:
  By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, adults 20-59 years of age, and children <19 years of age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest interventions started earlier in the epidemic delay the epidemic curve and interventions started later flatten the epidemic curve. We noted that, while social distancing interventions were in place, most new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were averted, even with modest reductions in contact among adults. However, when interventions ended, the epidemic rebounded. Our models suggest that social distancing can provide crucial time to increase healthcare capacity but must occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate virus transmission.
• Subjects:
  Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 And Over Age Factors Betacoronavirus Child Child, Preschool Cities Clinical Laboratory Techniques Communicable Disease Control Contact Tracing Coronavirus Infections Covid-19 Female Hospitalization Humans Incidence Infant Infant, Newborn Infectious Disease Incubation Period Male Middle Aged Models, Statistical Pandemics Patient Isolation Pneumonia, Viral Severity Of Illness Index Social Distance Survival Analysis

  More +
• Source:
  Emerg Infect Dis. 26(8):1740-1748
• Pubmed ID:
  32343222
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC7392458
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Location:
  North America
• Volume:
  26
• Issue:
  8
• Collection(s):
  Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:1443fda85a44b5280843766f84118f47b96dc033e92f9b69e778019c538dd7ef
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/91562/cdc_91562_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.48 MB ]