Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Forecasts of Total Deaths: Updated July 31, 2020

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
• Description:
  As of July 31, 2020, the Forecasts of COVID-19 Deaths webpage includes forecasts of new deaths in addition to forecasts of total deaths.
  
  Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 27, 2020.
  
  Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
  
  • This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 32 modeling groups. Those forecasts predict:
  
  o The number of new COVID-19 deaths reported each week (31 forecasts), which indicates how reported deaths are likely to increase or decrease in the coming weeks
  
  o The total number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of each week (31 forecasts), which helps us understand the likely overall impact of the pandemic in the coming weeks
  
  Of the 32 modeling groups, 30 provided forecasts of both new and total deaths, one provided a forecast of new deaths only, and one provided a forecast of total deaths only.
  
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths may increase over the next month, with 5,000 to 11,000 new deaths reported during the week ending August 22. The ensemble forecast predicts that 168,000 to 182,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by August 22.
  
  • State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in: Alabama, Kentucky, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, and Washington.
  
  National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Coronavirus Infections COVID-19 Forecasting Pandemics Public Health Surveillance
• Series:
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Collection(s):
  Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:d75e405f5931ac41228d2837cd6e785feae35cffe82015db86002f0a51b8ffba6d8e85de27603d39411b96ea05cef590eba6ff87b0be7246b5182a8e7b1713f4
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/91376/cdc_91376_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1015.25 KB ]