Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Forecasts of Total Deaths: Updated July 31, 2020

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
• Description:
  As of July 31, 2020, the Forecasts of COVID-19 Deaths webpage includes forecasts of new deaths in addition to forecasts of total deaths. ; Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 27, 2020. ; Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths ; • This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 32 modeling groups. Those forecasts predict: ; o The number of new COVID-19 deaths reported each week (31 forecasts), which indicates how reported deaths are likely to increase or decrease in the coming weeks ; o The total number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of each week (31 forecasts), which helps us understand the likely overall impact of the pandemic in the coming weeks ; Of the 32 modeling groups, 30 provided forecasts of both new and total deaths, one provided a forecast of new deaths only, and one provided a forecast of total deaths only. ; • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths may increase over the next month, with 5,000 to 11,000 new deaths reported during the week ending August 22. The ensemble forecast predicts that 168,000 to 182,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by August 22. ; • State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in: Alabama, Kentucky, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, and Washington. ; National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.
• Subjects:
  • COVID-19
  • Coronavirus Infections
  • Forecasting
  • Pandemics
  • Public Health Surveillance
• Series:
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/91376/cdc_91376_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1015.25 KB]
• Collection(s):
  Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:d75e405f5931ac41228d2837cd6e785feae35cffe82015db86002f0a51b8ffba6d8e85de27603d39411b96ea05cef590eba6ff87b0be7246b5182a8e7b1713f4