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Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) : forecasts of total deaths : updated July 15, 2020
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July 15, 2020
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Description:Observed and forecasted cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 13, 2020.
Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
• This week CDC received 24 individual national forecasts.
• This week’s national ensemble forecast suggests that there will likely be between 150,000 and 170,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 8th.
• The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks in 22 states and 2 territories. The jurisdictions with the greatest likelihood of a larger number of deaths include: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, the Virgin Islands, and West Virginia.
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Content Notes:National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.
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