Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Forecasts of Total Deaths: Updated July 15, 2020

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
• Description:
  Observed and forecasted cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths as of July 13, 2020.
  
  Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
  
  • This week CDC received 24 individual national forecasts.
  
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast suggests that there will likely be between 150,000 and 170,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 8th.
  
  • The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks in 22 states and 2 territories. The jurisdictions with the greatest likelihood of a larger number of deaths include: Arizona, Florida, Idaho, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, the Virgin Islands, and West Virginia.
  
  National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Modeling Groups.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Coronavirus Infections COVID-19 Forecasting Pandemics Public Health Surveillance
• Series:
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Collection(s):
  Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:f715f28f273d70f419b1237245e8331151adbce1ad3014a4c88c462d26c5aafbf75bc342ecbe7741a14e7197bee93e7d8adb88b07217841f59f8ebc18fb47ea7
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/90673/cdc_90673_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 346.10 KB ]