Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): COVID-19 Forecasts for the United States: May 21, 2020

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
• Description:
  Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
  
  • This week’s national-level forecasting includes 16 individual forecasts, and all indicate that additional COVID-19 deaths will occur in the coming weeks. Predicted rates of increase differ among the forecasts, depending on assumptions about the strength and coverage of social distancing behaviors.
  
  • The national ensemble forecast suggests that the rate of increase in cumulative deaths is likely to slow but still exceed 110,000 by June 13.
  
  • State-level ensemble forecasts indicate that states with low numbers of deaths reported to date are not likely to see a rapid rise in the coming weeks, while states with high numbers of deaths reported to date are likely to see increases at varying rates.
  
  National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical -- What the Forecasts Aim to Predict -- Working to Bring Together Forecasts for COVID-19 Deaths in the US.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Coronavirus Infections COVID-19 Forecasting Pandemics Public Health Surveillance
• Series:
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Collection(s):
  Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:75bf07c03a3c5b70b4661149e0a0528705420a8a33eeadbf306bbb702be1069a07de7f6eef286a7bd3b478f993491f59eec9ee10bcb89724b37924d4afc6a30e
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/88259/cdc_88259_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 452.01 KB ]