COVID-19 forecasts for the United States
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  • English

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    • Description:
      Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts

      • This week’s national-level forecasting includes 16 individual forecasts, and all indicate that additional COVID-19 deaths will occur in the coming weeks. Predicted rates of increase differ among the forecasts, depending on assumptions about the strength and coverage of social distancing behaviors.

      • The national ensemble forecast suggests that the rate of increase in cumulative deaths is likely to slow but still exceed 110,000 by June 13.

      • State-level ensemble forecasts indicate that states with low numbers of deaths reported to date are not likely to see a rapid rise in the coming weeks, while states with high numbers of deaths reported to date are likely to see increases at varying rates.

    • Content Notes:
      National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical -- What the Forecasts Aim to Predict -- Working to Bring Together Forecasts for COVID-19 Deaths in the US.
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