Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): COVID-19 Forecasts: Updated May 14, 2020

Details

• Corporate Authors:
  National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Division of Viral Diseases.
• Description:
  Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts
  
  • This week’s national-level forecasting includes 12 individual forecasts, and all indicate an increase in deaths in the coming weeks. Predicted rates of increase differ among the forecasts, depending on assumptions about the strength and coverage of social distancing behaviors.
  
  • The National Ensemble Forecast suggests that the number of cumulative reported deaths are likely to exceed 100,000 by June 1st.
  
  • State-level ensemble forecasts indicate that states with low numbers of deaths reported to date are not likely to see a rapid rise in the coming weeks, while states with high numbers of deaths reported to date are likely to see substantial increases.
  
  Interpretation of Cumulative Death Forecasts -- National Forecast -- State Forecasts -- Why Forecasting COVID-19 Deaths in the US is Critical -- What the Forecasts Aim to Predict -- Working to Bring Together Forecasts for COVID-19 Deaths in the US.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Coronavirus Infections COVID-19 Forecasting Pandemics Public Health Surveillance
• Series:
  Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Document Type:
  Text
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Collection(s):
  Stephen B. Thacker CDC Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:275638931720109212b9ec53626f09b2b5a5e3aab18072a8d2aef9e24148064db0ee49976b034b79e2173f49ea733c704e7de68e22acb8cd595df7943b75b61d
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/87936/cdc_87936_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 422.04 KB ]