29463143

PMC5984136

Objectives

Of the 215,000 global deaths from rotavirus estimated in 2013, 41% occur in Asian countries. However, despite a recommendation for global rotavirus vaccination since 2009, only eight countries in Asia have introduced rotavirus vaccine into their national immunization program as of September 2017. To help policy makers assess the potential value of vaccination, we projected the reduction in rotavirus hospitalizations and deaths following a hypothetical national introduction of rotavirus vaccines in all countries in Asia using data on national-level rotavirus mortality, <5 population, rotavirus hospitalizations rates, routine vaccination coverage, and vaccine effectiveness.

Methods

To quantify uncertainty, we generated 1,000 simulations of these inputs.

Results

Our model predicted 710,000 fewer rotavirus hospitalizations, a 49% decrease from the 1,452,000 baseline hospitalizations and 35,000 fewer rotavirus deaths, a 40% decrease from the 88,000 baseline deaths if all 43 Asian countries had introduced rotavirus vaccine. Similar reductions were projected in subanalyses by vaccine introduction status, subregion, and birth cohort size.

Conclusion

Rotavirus vaccines will substantially reduce morbidity and mortality due to rotavirus infections in Asia.

CDC Public Access

CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHS/United States