Seasonal Incidence of Symptomatic Influenza in the United States

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Clin Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Tokars, Jerome I. ; Olsen, Sonja J. ; Reed, Carrie
• Description:
  Background
  
  The seasonal incidence of influenza is often approximated as 5%–20%.
  
  Methods
  
  We used 2 methods to estimate the seasonal incidence of symptomatic influenza in the United States. First, we made a statistical estimate extrapolated from influenza-associated hospitalization rates for 2010–2011 to 2015–2016, collected as part of national surveillance, covering approximately 9% of the United States, and including the existing mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. Second, we performed a literature search and meta-analysis of published manuscripts that followed cohorts of subjects during 1996–2016 to detect laboratory-confirmed symptomatic influenza among unvaccinated persons; we adjusted this result to the US median vaccination coverage and effectiveness during 2010–2016.
  
  Results
  
  The statistical estimate of influenza incidence among all ages ranged from 3.0%–11.3% among seasons, with median values of 8.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3%–9.7%) for all ages, 9.3% (95% CI, 8.2%–11.1%) for children <18 years, and 8.9% (95% CI, 8.2%–9.9%) for adults 18–64 years. Corresponding values for the meta-analysis were 7.1% (95% CI, 6.1%–8.1%) for all ages, 8.7% (95% CI, 6.6%–10.5%) for children, and 5.1% (95% CI, 3.6%–6.6%) for adults.
  
  Conclusions
  
  The 2 approaches produced comparable results for children and persons of all ages. The statistical estimates are more versatile and permit estimation of season-to-season variation. During 2010–2016, the incidence of symptomatic influenza among vaccinated and unvaccinated US residents, including both medically attended and nonattended infections, was approximately 8% and varied from 3% to 11% among seasons.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Adolescent Adult Aged Article Centers For Disease Control And Prevention, U.S. Child Child, Preschool Female Humans Incidence Infant Influenza Influenza, Human Male Meta-analysis Middle Aged Seasonal Influenza Incidence Seasons Statistical Estimation United States Young Adult

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• Source:
  Clin Infect Dis. 66(10):1511-1518
• Pubmed ID:
  29206909
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC5934309
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States
• Volume:
  66
• Issue:
  10
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:4d0e182ec2327bd38c7b37a5fe9c5acbbe54ac8c57c62422967e01edc759f0ee
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/53814/cdc_53814_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 270.12 KB ]