Influence of Population Immunosuppression and Past Vaccination on Smallpox Reemergence

MacIntyre, C. Raina; Costantino, Valentina; Chen, Xin; Segelov, Eva; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; Kelleher, Anthony; Kunasekaran, Mohana; Lane, John Michael

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Influence of Population Immunosuppression and Past Vaccination on Smallpox Reemergence

Supporting Files Public Domain

Apr 2018
By MacIntyre, C. Raina ; Costantino, Valentina ; Chen, Xin ; ...

File Language:

English

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Alternative Title:

Emerg Infect Dis
Personal Author:

MacIntyre, C. Raina ; Costantino, Valentina ; Chen, Xin ; Segelov, Eva ; Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad ; Kelleher, Anthony ; Kunasekaran, Mohana ; Lane, John Michael
Description:

We built a SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model of smallpox transmission for New York, New York, USA, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, that accounted for age-specific population immunosuppression and residual vaccine immunity and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the effect these parameters might have on smallpox reemergence. At least 19% of New York's and 17% of Sydney's population are immunosuppressed. The highest smallpox infection rates were in persons 0-19 years of age, but the highest death rates were in those >45 years of age. Because of the low level of residual vaccine immunity, immunosuppression was more influential than vaccination on death and infection rates in our model. Despite widespread smallpox vaccination until 1980 in New York, smallpox outbreak severity appeared worse in New York than in Sydney. Immunosuppression is highly prevalent and should be considered in future smallpox outbreak models because excluding this factor probably underestimates death and infection rates.
Subjects:

Adolescent Adult Aged Aged, 80 And Over Child Child, Preschool Communicable Diseases, Emerging Female Humans Immune Tolerance Immunity Infant Infant, Newborn Male Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Population Surveillance Poxviridae Research Smallpox Smallpox Vaccine Vaccination Young Adult
Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 24(4):646-653.
Pubmed ID:

29553311
Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5875263
Document Type:

Journal Article
Volume:

24
Issue:

4
Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:6c67b398552337c0bd16c837ccfc00e01994bd0e5cffa589b917caa6c948012d
Download URL:

https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/53054/cdc_53054_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.01 MB ]

File Language:

English

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