Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Emerg Infect Dis
• Personal Author:
  Marks, Michael ; Mitjà, Oriol ; Fitzpatrick, Christopher ; Asiedu, Kingsley ; Solomon, Anthony W. ; Mabey, David C.W. ; Funk, Sebastian
• Description:
  Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R0]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R0 (1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R0 (2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all estimates of R0. At high estimates of R0 with 12 monthly rounds of treatment, no combination of variables achieved eradication. Models should be used to guide the scale-up of yaws eradication.
• Subjects:
  Anti-Bacterial Agents Azithromycin Computer Simulation Disease Eradication Female Humans Male Markov Chains Models, Statistical Neglected Diseases/prevention & Control Recurrence Treponema Pallidum Tropical Climate Yaws

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• Source:
  Emerg Infect Dis. 23(1):22-28.
• Pubmed ID:
  27983500
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC5176210
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Volume:
  23
• Issue:
  1
• Collection(s):
  Emerging Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:4c2018c670ec4ae7ee35762861eaf76e60486954db083ebaa322f4125303fe78
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/43519/cdc_43519_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 930.48 KB ]