Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication

Marks, Michael; Mitjà, Oriol; Fitzpatrick, Christopher; Asiedu, Kingsley; Solomon, Anthony W.; Mabey, David C.W.; Funk, Sebastian

doi:10.3201/eid2301.160487

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Mathematical Modeling of Programmatic Requirements for Yaws Eradication

Published Date:

Jan 2017

Publisher's site:

http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2301.160487 New Site Icon

Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 23(1):22-28.

[PDF-930.48 KB]

Details:

Personal Authors:

Marks, Michael ; Mitjà, Oriol ; Fitzpatrick, Christopher ; Asiedu, Kingsley ; Solomon, Anthony W. ; ... More ▼

Keywords:

[+]

Pubmed ID:

27983500

Pubmed Central ID:

PMC5176210

Description:

Yaws is targeted for eradication by 2020. The mainstay of the eradication strategy is mass treatment followed by case finding. Modeling has been used to inform programmatic requirements for other neglected tropical diseases and could provide insights into yaws eradication. We developed a model of yaws transmission varying the coverage and number of rounds of treatment. The estimated number of cases arising from an index case (basic reproduction number [R0]) ranged from 1.08 to 3.32. To have 80% probability of achieving eradication, 8 rounds of treatment with 80% coverage were required at low estimates of R0 (1.45). This requirement increased to 95% at high estimates of R0 (2.47). Extending the treatment interval to 12 months increased requirements at all estimates of R0. At high estimates of R0 with 12 monthly rounds of treatment, no combination of variables achieved eradication. Models should be used to guide the scale-up of yaws eradication.

Document Type:

Journal Article

Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases

Supporting Files:

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