Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event
Published Date:Jan 2017
Source:Emerg Infect Dis. 23(1):46-55.
Bioterrorism And Preparedness
Decision Support Models
Keywords: Bacillus Anthracis
Mass Casualty Incidents
Modeling Tool For Decision Support During Early Days Of An Anthrax Event
Public Health Practice
Sverdlovsk Accidental Release
Pubmed Central ID:PMC5176207
Description:Health officials lack field-implementable tools for forecasting the effects that a large-scale release of Bacillus anthracis spores would have on public health and hospitals. We created a modeling tool (combining inhalational anthrax caseload projections based on initial case reports, effects of variable postexposure prophylaxis campaigns, and healthcare facility surge capacity requirements) to project hospitalizations and casualties from a newly detected inhalation anthrax event, and we examined the consequences of intervention choices. With only 3 days of case counts, the model can predict final attack sizes for simulated Sverdlovsk-like events (1979 USSR) with sufficient accuracy for decision making and confirms the value of early postexposure prophylaxis initiation. According to a baseline scenario, hospital treatment volume peaks 15 days after exposure, deaths peak earlier (day 5), and recovery peaks later (day 23). This tool gives public health, hospital, and emergency planners scenario-specific information for developing quantitative response plans for this threat.
image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg image/gif image/jpeg application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet application/pdf application/octet-stream
You May Also Like: