Details:

Alternative Title:
Clin Infect Dis
Personal Author:
O’Hagan, Justin J ; Wong, Karen K. ; Campbell, Angela P. ; Patel, Anita ; Swerdlow, David L. ; ... More +
O’Hagan, Justin J ; Wong, Karen K. ; Campbell, Angela P. ; Patel, Anita ; Swerdlow, David L. ; Fry, Alicia M. ; Koonin, Lisa M. ; Meltzer, Martin I. Less -
Description:
Following the detection of a novel influenza strain A(H7N9), we modeled the use of antiviral treatment in the United States to mitigate severe disease across a range of hypothetical pandemic scenarios. Our outcomes were total demand for antiviral (neuraminidase inhibitor) treatment and the number of hospitalizations and deaths averted. The model included estimates of attack rate, healthcare-seeking behavior, prescription rates, adherence, disease severity, and the potential effect of antivirals on the risks of hospitalization and death. Based on these inputs, the total antiviral regimens estimated to be available in the United States (as of April 2013) were sufficient to meet treatment needs for the scenarios considered. However, distribution logistics were not examined and should be addressed in future work. Treatment was estimated to avert many severe outcomes (5200-248,000 deaths; 4800-504,000 hospitalizations); however, large numbers remained (25,000-425,000 deaths; 580,000-3,700,000 hospitalizations), suggesting that the impact of combinations of interventions should be examined.
Subject:
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Antiviral Agents
Article
Communicable Disease Control
Disaster Planning
Humans
Influenza, Human
Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype
Models, Theoretical
Pandemics

Source:
Clin Infect Dis. 60(0 1):S30-S41.
Pubmed ID:
25878299
Pubmed Central ID:
PMC4663971
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
CC999999/Intramural CDC HHS/United States
Place as Subject:
United States
Collection(s):
CDC Public Access
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:730ecf6baa16035e9a533efbf0a4628dc54043d8755d7fa2c98453d70ece5fca
File Type:

Supporting Files

• 	NIHMS739884-supplement-Appendix.docx	docx
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