Details:

Alternative Title:
Clin Infect Dis
Personal Author:
Biggerstaff, Matthew ; Reed, Carrie ; Swerdlow, David L. ; Gambhir, Manoj ; Graitcer, Samuel ; ... More +
Biggerstaff, Matthew ; Reed, Carrie ; Swerdlow, David L. ; Gambhir, Manoj ; Graitcer, Samuel ; Finelli, Lyn ; Borse, Rebekah H. ; Rasmussen, Sonja A. ; Meltzer, Martin I. ; Bridges, Carolyn B. Less -
Description:
Background

Human illness from influenza A(H7N9) was identified March 2013, and candidate vaccine viruses were soon developed. To understand factors that may impact influenza vaccination programs, we developed a model to evaluate hospitalizations and deaths averted considering various scenarios.

Methods

We utilized a model incorporating epidemic curves with clinical attack rates of 20% or 30% in a single wave of illness, case hospitalization ratios of 0.5% or 4.2%, and case fatality ratios of 0.08% or 0.53%. We considered scenarios that achieved 80% vaccination coverage, various starts of vaccination programs (16 or 8 weeks before, the same week of, or 8 or 16 weeks after start of pandemic), an administration rate of 10 or 30 million doses/week (the latter rate is an untested assumption), and two levels of vaccine effectiveness (two doses of vaccine required; either 62% or 80% effective for persons aged <60, and either 43% or 60% effective for persons aged ≥60).

Results

The start date of vaccination campaigns most influenced impact; from 141,000 – 2,200,000 hospitalizations and 11,000 – 281,000 deaths were averted when campaigns started before a pandemic and <100 – 1,300,000 hospitalizations and 0 – 165,000 deaths were averted for programs beginning the same time as or after the introduction of the pandemic virus. The rate of vaccine administration and vaccine effectiveness did not influence campaign impact as much as timing of start of campaign.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that efforts to improve the timeliness of vaccine production will provide the greatest impacts for future pandemic vaccination programs.


Subjects:
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Article Communicable Diseases, Emerging Disaster Planning Epidemiological Monitoring Humans Immunization Programs Influenza Influenza, Human Influenza A (H7N9) Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype Influenza Vaccine Influenza Vaccines Mathematical Modeling Models, Theoretical Pandemic Pandemics United States
Source:
Clin Infect Dis. 60(0 1):S20-S29
Pubmed ID:
25878298
Pubmed Central ID:
PMC4610126
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
CC999999/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/
Collection(s):
CDC Public Access
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:1deaabaf803c45a56dd8491e693c7acdfd7d5296fafdae5c83cccba29b92d83a
Download URL:
https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/35091/cdc_35091_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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