Key transmission parameters of an institutional outbreak during the 1918 influenza pandemic estimated by mathematical modelling

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Theor Biol Med Model
• Personal Author:
  Sertsou, Gabriel ; Wilson, Nick ; Baker, Michael ; Nelson, Peter ; Roberts, Mick G
• Description:
  Aim
  
  To estimate the key transmission parameters associated with an outbreak of pandemic influenza in an institutional setting (New Zealand 1918).
  
  Methods
  
  Historical morbidity and mortality data were obtained from the report of the medical officer for a large military camp. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiological model was solved numerically to find a range of best-fit estimates for key epidemic parameters and an incidence curve. Mortality data were subsequently modelled by performing a convolution of incidence distribution with a best-fit incidence-mortality lag distribution.
  
  Results
  
  Basic reproduction number (R0) values for three possible scenarios ranged between 1.3, and 3.1, and corresponding average latent period and infectious period estimates ranged between 0.7 and 1.3 days, and 0.2 and 0.3 days respectively. The mean and median best-estimate incidence-mortality lag periods were 6.9 and 6.6 days respectively. This delay is consistent with secondary bacterial pneumonia being a relatively important cause of death in this predominantly young male population.
  
  Conclusion
  
  These R0 estimates are broadly consistent with others made for the 1918 influenza pandemic and are not particularly large relative to some other infectious diseases. This finding suggests that if a novel influenza strain of similar virulence emerged then it could potentially be controlled through the prompt use of major public health measures.
  
  
• Subjects:
  Adult Cause Of Death Disease Outbreaks History, 20th Century Hospitals, Military Humans Influenza, Human Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 Male Military Personnel Models, Theoretical Pneumonia, Bacterial Research Virulence

  More +
• Source:
  Theor Biol Med Model. 2006; 3:38.
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Funding:
  1 U01 CI000445-01/CI/NCPDCID CDC HHS/United States
• Place as Subject:
  New Zealand
• Volume:
  3
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:40d4997329e075b5ee654c7d93458a9d6d9e9d5323888d59efdb5cd66d594fa0
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/31257/cdc_31257_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 261.16 KB ]