Simulation Study of the Effect of Influenza and Influenza Vaccination on Risk of Acquiring Guillain-Barré Syndrome

Hawken, Steven; Kwong, Jeffrey C.; Deeks, Shelley L.; Crowcroft, Natasha S.; McGeer, Allison J.; Ducharme, Robin; Campitelli, Michael A.; Coyle, Doug; Wilson, Kumanan

doi:10.3201/eid2102.131879

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Simulation Study of the Effect of Influenza and Influenza Vaccination on Risk of Acquiring Guillain-Barré Syndrome

Published Date:

Feb 2015

Publisher's site:

http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2102.131879 New Site Icon

Source:

Emerg Infect Dis. 21(2):224-231.

[PDF-536.86 KB]

Details:

Alternative Title:

Emerg Infect Dis

Personal Author:

Hawken, Steven ; Kwong, Jeffrey C. ; Deeks, Shelley L. ; Crowcroft, Natasha S. ; McGeer, Allison J. ; ... More ▼

Description:

It is unclear whether seasonal influenza vaccination results in a net increase or decrease in the risk for Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). To assess the effect of seasonal influenza vaccination on the absolute risk of acquiring GBS, we used simulation models and published estimates of age- and sex-specific risks for GBS, influenza incidence, and vaccine effectiveness. For a hypothetical 45-year-old woman and 75-year-old man, excess GBS risk for influenza vaccination versus no vaccination was -0.36/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval -1.22 to 0.28) and -0.42/1 million vaccinations (95% credible interval, -3.68 to 2.44), respectively. These numbers represent a small absolute reduction in GBS risk with vaccination. Under typical conditions (e.g. influenza incidence rates >5% and vaccine effectiveness >60%), vaccination reduced GBS risk. These findings should strengthen confidence in the safety of influenza vaccine and allow health professionals to better put GBS risk in context when discussing influenza vaccination with patients.

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Document Type:

Journal Article

Collection(s):

Emerging Infectious Diseases

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