Estimating COVID-19 Associated Hospitalizations, ICU Admissions, and In-hospital Deaths Averted in the United States by 2023-2024 COVID-19 Vaccination: a Conditional Probability, Causal Inference, and Multiplier-based Approach.

Details

• Alternative Title:
  Vaccine, 2025, v. 49: Estimating COVID-19 Associated Hospitalizations, ICU Admissions, and In-hospital Deaths Averted in the United States by 2023-2024 COVID-19 Vaccination: a Conditional Probability, Causal Inference, and Multiplier-based Approach.
• Journal Article:
  Vaccine
• Personal Author:
  Wiegand, Ryan E. ; Devine, Owen ; Wallace, Megan ; Ortega-Sanchez, Ismael R. ; Pham, Huong T. ; Khan, Diba ; Moulia, Danielle L. ; Roper, Lauren E. ; Trejo, Imelda ; Fleming-Dutra, Katherine E. ; Havers, Fiona P. ; Taylor, Christopher A.
• Description:
  COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted from 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 vaccination from the weeks of October 1, 2023, through April 21, 2024, were estimated via a novel multiplier model that utilized causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in Monte Carlo simulations. Median COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted were 68,315 (95 % uncertainty interval UI 42,831-97,984), ICU admissions averted were 13,108 (95 % UI 4459-25,042), and in-hospital deaths averted were 5301 (95 % UI 101-14,230). Averted COVID-19-associated burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted 57,665, 95 % UI 35,442-84,006; ICU admissions averted 10,878, 95 % UI 3104-21,591; in-hospital deaths averted 4779, 95 % UI 0-13,132). Expanding the analytic period to comprise the weeks of September 24, 2023, through August 11, 2024, resulted in 107,197 COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted (95 % UI 80,692-137,643), 18,292 COVID-19-associated ICU admissions averted (95 % UI 10,062-28,436), and 6749 COVID-19-associated in-hospital deaths averted (95 % UI 2077-13,557). Older adults had the highest COVID-19-associated averted burden and potential to reduce burden further through increased vaccine coverage. 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccinations reduced the burden of COVID-19-associated severe disease.
• Content Notes:
  Author manuscript
• Subjects:
  • Humans
  • COVID-19
  • Hospitalization
  • Intensive Care Units
  • Aged
  • Hospital Mortality
  • COVID-19 Vaccines
  • Middle Aged
  • Vaccination
  • Adult
  More +
• Keywords:
  • COVID-19
  • disease burden
  • epidemiological models
  • vaccines
• Source:
  Vaccine, 2025, v. 49
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.126808
• ISSN:
  0264-410X ; 1873-2518
• Pubmed ID:
  39889531
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC12168029
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Pages in Document:
  126808 (19 pdf pages)
• Volume:
  49
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/261717/cdc_261717_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.09 MB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:da26c8bd585da09dfc8c787b77875d263f70e91c6cb3e62023a78726fcdd17fa17b94072577ac251720d6bfcb6381e07beeee2ecb5d7f2e0af22b31b6e9cb538