Modeling the Impact of Vaccine Dose Prioritization Strategies During the 2022 Mpox Outbreak.

Details

• Alternative Title:
  American Journal of Epidemiology, 2025, v. 195, no. 4: Modeling the Impact of Vaccine Dose Prioritization Strategies During the 2022 Mpox Outbreak.
• Journal Article:
  American Journal of Epidemiology
• Personal Author:
  Clay, Patrick A. ; Pollock, Emily D. ; Saldarriaga, Enrique M. ; Pathela, Preeti ; Macaraig, Michelle ; Zucker, Jane R. ; Crouch, Bindy ; Kracalik, Ian ; Spicknall, Ian H.
• Description:
  Early in the 2022 mpox outbreak, the US recommendation was to administer two doses of the JYNNEOS vaccine 4 weeks apart. However, because of limited vaccine supply, New York City (NYC) prioritized single dose vaccination. We estimated mpox cases averted by this strategy compared to strategies that prioritized 2-dose vaccination for a smaller portion of the population. We fit a network transmission model to incident mpox cases in NYC. Model output consisted of predicted cases over time when vaccine doses were administered with the "first-dose priority" strategy, compared with counterfactual simulations, where doses were administered to those eligible for a second dose ahead of those waiting for a first dose ("intermediate" strategy), or where individuals were preallocated full courses of the vaccine ("second-dose priority" strategy). We estimate that NYC's strategy averted 66% (IQR, 47%-78%) of potential mpox cases compared to no vaccination. This "first-dose priority" strategy averted 0.6% (IQR, -11% to 9.8%) more cases than the "intermediate" strategy, and 17% (IQR, 2.9%-38%) more cases than the "second-dose priority" strategy. Thus, for the 2022 mpox outbreak in NYC, preallocating vaccine doses to ensure full vaccination in a high-priority subset of the population would have increased the size of the outbreak.
• Content Notes:
  Author manuscript
• Subjects:
  • Humans
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Mpox, Monkeypox
  • Vaccination
  • Immunization Schedule
  • Adult
• Keywords:
  • mpox
  • epidemic
  • STI
  • vaccination
  • mathematical modeling
  • JYNNEOS
  • network
• Source:
  American Journal of Epidemiology, 2025, v. 195, no. 4
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwaf054
• ISSN:
  0002-9262 ; 1476-6256
• Pubmed ID:
  40069944
• Pubmed Central ID:
  PMC12311848
• Document Type:
  Text
• Funding:
  CC999999/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States/
• Genre:
  Journal Article
• Place as Subject:
  New York City
• Pages in Document:
  948-955 (15 pdf pages)
• Volume:
  195
• Issue:
  4
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/261607/cdc_261607_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 769.43 KB]
• Collection(s):
  CDC Public Access
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:89e1646f25a4b38f4c640fe545620e76aec7bf2b65384c86d13b417cd488de5e7a9a973cc1234836b530b3bcb3a8e53b6a80d9ea69d0e9bb88765fe06144fc40