Within-season projections of U.S. COVID-19 booster uptake over the 2023/2024 season

Details

• Personal Author:
  Holmdahl, Inga E. ; Singleton, James A. ; Kriss, Jennifer L. ; Stokley, Shannon ; Miller, Paige B. ; Bruce, Beau B. ; Olesen, Scott W.
• Corporate Authors:
  Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (U.S.). Predict Division ; National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases (U.S.). Immunization Services Division
• Description:
  Introduction: Updated bivalent booster vaccines against COVID-19 were developed for the 2023/2024 season and recommended by CDC for people six months or older in September 2023. The Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices (ACIP) approved the updated booster 12 days later in the 2023/2024 season compared to thetiming of the previous booster dose recommendation. In this study, we aimed to project end-of-season (April 2024) COVID-19 booster uptake using real-time data available earlier in the season. We developed three scenario-based approaches to project end-of-season uptake using data from 4 weeks at the beginning of the 2023/2024 vaccine rollout period.
  
  Objective: Make in-season projections of cumulative, end-of-season COVID-19 booster uptake among U.S. adults for the 2023/2024 season.
  
  Data: Starting the week ending September 30, 2023, the National Immunization Survey-Adult COVID Module conducted ongoing surveys of a representative sample of the adult U.S. population asking whether respondents intended to get the updated COVID-19 booster or had received it. Estimates were developed on a weekly basis using interviews completed during each week. These survey data from the 2023/2024 season were compared to the equivalent data collected during a similar period 12 months prior. Sentiment survey response from the first week of the 2023/2024 season was used for sentiment-based projection.
  
  Conclusions: Projections made using only 4 weeks of survey data accurately bracketed end-of-season uptake for the 2023/2024 updated COVID-19 booster. Validated models that can accurately project end-of-season uptake using limited data from the start of the season could be used to make real-time adjustments to vaccine rollout strategies and messaging.
  
  
• Subjects:
  COVID-19 Vaccines Data Analysis Data Analytics Forecasting Immunization Immunization, Secondary Sentiment Analysis Surveys And Questionnaires Vaccination Vaccination Hesitancy Vaccine Development Vaccines, Combined

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• Keywords:
  Bivalent Vaccines Booster Vaccines Prediction Vaccine Uptake
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.15620/cdc/255627
• Publisher:
  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U.S.)
• Document Type:
  Still Image
• Genre:
  Poster ; Conference Publication
• Place as Subject:
  United States
• Rights:
  Public Domain
• CIO:
  Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics (CFA) ; National Center for Immunizations and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD)
• Division:
  PD - Predict Division ; ISD - Immunization Services Division
• Topic:
  Diseases & Conditions
• Location:
  North America
• Pages in Document:
  1 pdf page
• Collection(s):
  Infectious Diseases
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:4b2348e348a66c0e1fbee0558660dd6545383020ab94f119b5babf24dca6f0662f55f047c0d4b96262ef36c55a45347f41f0f58357c63f75436ce89c72683fb4
• Download URL:
  https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/255627/cdc_255627_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 779.26 KB ]